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Forum:	ESA - JAXA - China - International
Topic:	[Discuss] China's human lunar exploration plans

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Your Reply: HTML is ON UBB Code is ON Smilies Legend	[QUOTE]Originally posted by Robert Pearlman: [B]<BLOCKQUOTE>[i]Please use this thread for the discussion of China's <A HREF="http://www.collectspace.com/ubb/Forum32/HTML/000327.html">plans to land humans on the moon</A>, including its <A HREF="http://www.collectspace.com/ubb/Forum32/HTML/000304.html">International Lunar Research Station</A>.[/i]</BLOCKQUOTE>[/B][/QUOTE]
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<table border=0 cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 width="600"><TR><td bgcolor="#000000"><TABLE BORDER=0 cellpadding=4 border=0 cellspacing=1 WIDTH="100%"><TR bgcolor="#660000"><TD COLSPAN=2><CENTER>T O P I C     R E V I E W</CENTER></TD></TR><TR bgcolor="#494949"><TD valign=top>Robert Pearlman</TD><TD><BLOCKQUOTE>Please use this thread for the discussion of China's <A HREF="http://www.collectspace.com/ubb/Forum32/HTML/000327.html">plans to land humans on the moon</A>, including its <A HREF="http://www.collectspace.com/ubb/Forum32/HTML/000304.html">International Lunar Research Station</A>.</BLOCKQUOTE></TD></TR><TR bgcolor="#333333"><TD valign=top>Cozmosis22</TD><TD>Chen Lan, an analyst who specialises in China's space programme, <A HREF="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56342311" TARGET=_blank>told AFP news agency</A> that International Lunar Research Station project was a "big deal."<BLOCKQUOTE>"This will be the largest international space cooperation project for China, so it's significant," he said.</BLOCKQUOTE></TD></TR><TR bgcolor="#494949"><TD valign=top>dom</TD><TD>Very interesting to see how this pans out. No matter what the wording of the agreement says, Russia will be the junior partner again — just like the ISS — but in the long run will they listen to the Chinese anymore than they did NASA?</TD></TR><TR bgcolor="#333333"><TD valign=top>Robert Pearlman</TD><TD>Chinese and Russian space officials <A HREF="http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6812150/content.html" TARGET=_blank>revealed a roadmap</A> for the joint International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) on Wednesday (June 16) at the Global Space Exploration (GLEX) conference in St. Petersburg, Russia, <A HREF="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-reveal-roadmap-for-international-moon-base/" TARGET=_blank>reports SpaceNews</A>. <BLOCKQUOTE>Wu Yanhua, deputy head of the China National Space Administration (CNSA), introduced the science objectives, facilities and transportation, lunar surface infrastructure, development phases and cooperation frameworks for the venture.The first phase of ILRS, noted as reconnaissance, involves gathering data and verifying high-precision soft-landings across 2021-25 with the Chinese Chang'e-4, -6 and -7 missions, Russia's Luna 25, 26 and 27 and possible missions of partners. <center><iframe width="400" height="225" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KqCW5dcZD0Y" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen>

The second "construction" phase consists of two stages (2026-30, 2031-35). The first involves technology verifications, sample return, massive cargo delivery and the start of joint operations. Planned missions are Chang'e-8 and Luna 28 and potential international contributions.

The second stage looks to complete on-orbit and surface infrastructure for energy, communications, in-situ resource utilization and other technologies. Missions named ILRS-1 through 5 would focus respectively on energy and communications, research and exploration facilities, in-situ resource utilization, general technologies and astronomy capabilities. Russian super heavy-lift launch vehicles are listed to launch the missions.

The final "utilization" phase beyond 2036 would see the start of crewed landings.

Headshot

Both the U.S. and Russia reduced their commitments to the ISS architecture over the years. We never launched a habitation module, a crew return module, or the Centrifuge Accommodation module and the Russians never produced the big Science Power Platform, universal docking module, life support module or various research modules the promised.

The point is these grandiose plans for a lunar base are going to be scaled back over the next decade or so due to economic realities, politics, or both.

Robert Pearlman

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China now describes its plans for an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) as a project to be jointly built by many countries, reports SpaceNews.

Russia, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) have signed agreements to engage in the ILRS, with more than ten further countries and organizations currently negotiating agreements, according to a report by the state-owned Ta Kung Pao newspaper.
Malaysia is one of the countries discussing terms of the project, according to the Kuala Lumpur-based China Press. Venezuela has also spoken positively to an invitation to join the ILRS.
The ILRS project aims to construct a permanent lunar base in the 2030s with a series of stepping stone missions before the end of this decade.
China announced in April that it was establishing the International Lunar Research Station Cooperation Organization (ILRSCO) to coordinate and manage the project.

SkyMan1958

Pakistan and Venezuela? Wow, talk about economic basket cases.

While the UAE certainly has money, I wonder what sort of space tech transfer issues they will run into with the US if they try to seriously partner with China... not to mention if that would jeopardize their access to more high level issues with the Artemis program.

Robert Pearlman

The UAE already ran into ITAR issues working with China with regards to its Rashid II lunar rover, which it was forced to remove from China's Chang'e-7 mission earlier this year. As SpaceNews reported at the time, it still may be possible, though, for the two countries (and others) to work on other projects together.

Components developed to be ITAR-free have allowed entities in China and Europe to collaborate, while China has also looked to deliver turnkey space solutions — providing launch, spacecraft, ground support and so on — to lesser developed nations in order to avoid the barriers of ITAR.

Delta7

It wouldn't surprise me if China will try and beat the USA back to the moon's surface.

Robert Pearlman

China has announced it is aiming for no sooner than 2030 to land humans on the moon.

SkyMan1958

The International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), the Chinese (and nominally Russian) alternative to the Artemis Accords (and Gateway etc.) has not been getting much coverage in the Western media. China and Russia, were the founding members. Venezuela and South Africa had previously joined the ILRS.

On October 3 Azerbaijan joined. Pakistan and Belarus joined the Chinese ILRS on October 20th and 23rd, respectively.

In addition, I found out today that the UAE joined in June 2023, which was interesting in that they are signers of the Artemis Accords.

China clearly has money to spend on the project, and both the UAE and and Azerbaijan also have money to spend. While Russia has know how, it isn't putting significant money into civilian space projects. The other four countries are more or less broke, but they add political weight at international forums.

As mentioned, I'm interested to see how the UAE is planning to play this political game, particularly given ITAR restrictions.

Editor's note: Threads merged.

Robert Pearlman

Since the start of the Ukraine war (and to a greater extent after the failure of Luna 25), China has stopped referring to the ILRS as a jointly-run program with Russia and has framed it more as a China-led initiative with international cooperation.

At least so far, China seems to be approaching its international partners in a similar way to NASA how is proceeding with the Artemis program. China plans to build the infrastructure it needs to accomplish its own goals and if those vehicles and support programs can be used by other countries to advance their own lunar plans — however big or small they be — then they are welcome to come along.

Robert Pearlman

According to SpaceNews, signatories to China's International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) currently include:

China (Country)
Belarus (Country)
Pakistan (Country)
Azerbaijan (Country)
Russia (Country)
Venezuela (Country)
South Africa (Country)
Egypt (Country)
Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (Inter-governmental Organization)
nanoSPACE AG (Switzerland) (Firm)
International Lunar Observatory Association (ILOA, Hawaii) (Organization)
National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand (Institute)
University of Sharjah (UAE) (University)
Adriatic Aerospace Association (A3) (Croatia) (Organization)

SkyMan1958

Egypt is an important addition for the Chinese, as Egypt holds weight in the Arab, Muslim and African "worldview".

I somewhat expected the Egyptians to sign on to the Artemis Accords given that Saudi Arabia and the UAE had already signed on to them. I wonder if the current Israeli/Palestinian conflict is opening a wedge in current US attempts to get Arab and/or Muslim countries to sign on to the Artemis Accords.

I am cynical enough to wonder what the USA has offered various countries to sign on to the Artemis Accords. I wonder what China has offered Egypt. Personally, it makes sense to me for these "smaller" countries to let the USA and China bid for the "smaller" countries support on how to move forward on Lunar (and eventually deep space) exploration and utilization of in situ resources.

JohnPaul56

Has the China Manned Space Engineering Office indicate a timeline as to when they will land on the moon?

Robert Pearlman

The current official word is a first landing "by 2030" with operations to extend into the 2030s.

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